Socially|Mundane

I like mainland.

I don't know why, so don't ask. I don't have an answer. I suppose there's something 'nostalgic' for me. I remember buying my first 512 square meter parcel from the Linden "First Land" list, where Linden Lab sold "First Land" to anyone on what is now called a 'Premium Account' for L$1 per square meter. The only requisite was that you have never owned any land previously. And since all premium accounts get 512 M2 (Linden Lab's designation for square meters) tier-free, you never had to pay any tier on that. L$512 for your own place in the virtual world.

So I have been 'window' shopping mainland parcels more in curiosity than anything else and to keep things consistent, I have been sticking to 8192 M2 parcels. I remember, back in 2006 the average price for PG land was about L$5 per M2 and perhaps L$7 for mature. Of course these rates fluctuate frequently, but those numbers stick in my head for some reason.

Then along came the virtual "Land Barons" with their bots, flipping entire mainland sims and striking up a firestorm of problems and controversy, especially when someone was giving land to another person (selling the entire parcel for L$1) and not specifying a specific name to sell to, which essentially reserves that land for that person. A "land bot" would swoop-in and snatch the place. Practically all these land barons were unscrupulous enough to not correct the seller's mistake.



Land prices skyrocketed to upward of an average of L$15 per M2 or even higher ( I am sure I am misremembering, but that number sticks in my mind).

In my window shopping, I see the current low-end is hovering at L$4 and L$5 per M2 for both PG and Mature land (in the old days, Mature was far more valuable than PG.)

So it's more or less a buyer's market right now because there is a lot of good, Mature land out there for sale. So, with the low price at L$4 per M2 (the lowest I've seen for mature is L$3.5) for an 8192 M2 parcel, is it time to buy? I actually find it amazing that there are more Mature parcels at the lower rates than PG parcels.

I suspect 95% of the Second Life resident population have no idea the continent of Ursula exists or why. However, being "in the know" - there is a little speculation that creeps into a land-buying decision.

All "mature-considered" content must move to Ursula. Leaving large swaths of Mature (and even PG) parcels all over the grid that will become available. This is a "swap" that Linden Lab will be offering to these people.

Thus, I see a massive land-rush into Ursula, especially since so many will be looking for those "prime" locations. Then these people will have a real choice to consider:

1. Either keep the old place and ante-up their tier costs.
   However, with the first life economy in a serious dip, which causes the SL economy into a similar dip, how many of these people are willing to double their monthly tier costs by maintaining both chunks of virtual real estate?


2. Which leave them to consider selling the old parcel.
   I suspect the majority of movers will elect this option. But at what rate? If the current lower-end of the scale is hovering at L$4 and L$5 per M2, then the current competition which already is high could skyrocket in a massive influx of for-sale signs. Will this flush of new mainland cause a land-glut that brings land prices to are virtual crash? Hey, I'll buy your 8192 M2 parcel at L$2 or L$3 per M2 in the blink of an eye.


3. Or, they can simply abandon the land to Governor Linden.
   In this case, the land goes up to the auction block. I won't do a land auction for grimy old used parcels. Yes, it's digital, but for me has a feeling of being "used" and having mileage on it. What I mean is: what kind of prim garbage surrounds the place? Besides that, auctions tend to over-value land. I see lower bid of $70 U.S. being offered for 8182 parcels on the block today. Umm, no.

So in speculating, if I were looking for an 8192 square meter parcel on Linden mainland what should I do? I mean L$4 and L$5 per M2 is not bad at all and the mainland is not as ugly, laggy and horrible as it used to be in 2007. Yes, those nasty experience places still exist, but every where I've looked thus far is actually quite respectable.

Or, should one wait for the inevitable land-rush to Ursula to begin, and the resulting mass sell-off on the mainland to begin, where it definitely will be a buyer's market? After all, when that happens, I suspect there will be so much mainland available for sale that you can make an offer that will be seriously considered.

If someone is selling at say L$7 per M2 and you come along and offer L$4 per M2, I wouldn't be at all surprised if you end-up getting that and the reason is simple:

The seller wants to recoup something. It's a chance to make some money off the parcel. At the same time, simply because the land is for sale indicates they'd rather not cover that extra tier and neither do they desire to abandon the place.

The potential land-glut won't be coming in one big tidal-wave, as Jack Linden doesn't want that. That's part of why the transition period is so long and why the tier billing system during this period will be highly flexible and forgiving.

But, what would you do? Jump on the highly reasonable L$4 per M2 now, then hope to snatch-up more as it becomes available later, or in your speculation wait for the opportunity to twist selling land-owners' arms in a killer deal?